We're Winning -- and They're Losing Where It Really Counts ...
Dear Friends,
...that is in control of state governments.
Starting in the 1990's, the GOP made a concerted effort to gain control of states, creating "trifectas" (control of the governorship and both houses of the legislature) wherever possible. The Republicans created a diabolically clever organization, American Legislative Exchange Council or ALEC, to burrow down at the precinct level to take control of as many state governorships and legislative chambers as possible. While they were doing this, the Democratic Party organization was totally asleep at the switch. This was particularly true in the Obama era, when grassroots organizing under such "leaders" as Tom Perez and Debby Wasserman Schultz was either non-existent or woefully weak at the state level.
As a result, by the fateful year of 2016, the GOP held "trifectas" (control of the governorship and both houses of the legislature) in 24 states, compared to a similar Democratic control in just six states. While some of this control was the direct product of shameless gerrymandering, the Republicans had to first get control of legislatures in order to create such absurd electoral maps. (Wisconsin and Ohio were the most shameless examples, with 2/3rds of the seats in their legislatures in GOP hands while the two-party voting was nearly 50/50! This meant that even when states like Wisconsin and North Carolina had Democratic governors, the legislature could override any vetoes.)
However, following the 2022 election the ratio of GOP to Democratic trifectas came down to a far more reasonable 22 to 17--GOP still in the lead but our team had seriously closed the gap. Unsurprisingly, given our nation's intensely greater partisanship, the number of states with divided government fell from 20 in 2016 to just 11 in 2023. But the good news for Democrats is that there was movement toward our side--from either a Republican trifecta to divided government or from divided government to a Democratic trifecta--in 17 states, including such critical states as AZ, CO, IL, KS, KY, LA, ME, MA, MD, NJ, NY, NM, WA, and WI. And the true standout was Michigan, which dramatically has gone from a Republican trifecta in 2016 to now having a Democratic trifecta. Michigan is the consummate example of how the GOP's combination of bad candidates with unpopular policies spells electoral disaster.
Meanwhile the GOP notched gains in just five states , including such electoral powerhouses as IA, MO, MT, NH, and WV. Their negative electoral effect of limiting their appeal to elderly voters, rural voters and non-college graduates is only too clear. The choice of 2016 as a starting date was not accidental, as it marked the moment when the GOP began to carry the albatross of Donald Trump on its back. Good luck next year, with either a hopelessly damaged (and possibly convicted) Trump or a candidate like DeSantis, with a six-week abortion ban on his back and an extreme "war on woke," as their leading choices.
It may be too early to gloat, but it is not too soon to take quiet satisfaction in the stupidity, bordering on insanity, of the MAGA crowd. However, we have to remain vigilant and focus on every state-level race and, increasingly, local races as well. But it is the Republicans, not the Democrats, who should be gnashing their teeth.
Best regards,
Roger
